Are We Really Having a National Election?

By Steve Richer, DC Correspondent

2024 is said to be a "national" election.  This idea may be far from accurate.

While the Presidential and Congressional candidates are running in every state, the strong partisan advantages of most states (Red States and Blue States) make the results in most of America pre-set. This is especially true because only electoral votes tallied in the Electoral College count.  The popular vote and its size do not really matter.

On the Presidential level, this means that even in a closely fought election, 43 states and the District of Columbia will have no surprises with their electoral result.  Only seven states that will decide the election--Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin--will get most of the attention from the "national" campaigns.  This is so true in the Presidential race that the Republican campaign is focusing the bulk of its resources in just Georgia and Pennsylvania, which, if flipped from 2020, will give former President Donald Trump exactly the 270 Electoral Votes he needs if he holds all the other states he won in 2020.

Similarly, Senate seats and most House seats are not competitive, leaving just a few whose results will determine control of each chamber of Congress.

Why should inbound operators and their business partners care about this?

Quite simply, it reduces the opportunity for the inbound industry to stress our importance if the number of key states and districts are less dependent on tourism and its voices.  

One can project that tourism employee numbers in Nevada will mean a lot and that destination cities like Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Phoenix could become part of the messaging by the presidential candidates.

To date, the most visible industry outreach was by the Democrats seeking support from the Nevada hotel workers union.  The focus on the industry in the six other states has been limited to rare appearances at tourism-related sites.

Would the inbound industry be so ignored if New York, California, or even Florida were more in play?  Absolutely not.  There would be a lot more discussion about inbound travel if it were part of determining how those key states would go in the Electoral College.

Readers of this column are challenged to see how often tourism is mentioned in the 2024 campaigns and, better yet, suggest that the candidates talk about our industry in their campaigns.

You can start by contacting your Congressional candidates and describing our industry's importance to their district, thereby encouraging them to become industry advocates.

All members of Congress are looking for new support in the changing demographics of the United States, so make our voices heard now!